The geopolitical state of the world is a minor inconvenience compared to the rupture we are creating in the ecological condition of the world.
Dr. Trevor Hancock
23 February 2026
701 words
In a recent article in the Hill Times, for which the prime audience is the federal government and Parliament, I noted that while Mr. Carney was right to identify a rupture in the world in his recent Davos speech, he focused on the wrong rupture. The rupture he focused on – the geo-political state of the world – is a minor inconvenience compared to the drastic impact of the rupture we are creating in the ecological condition of the world.
I have noted repeatedly in these columns that we have transgressed seven of the nine planetary boundaries identified by leading Earth scientists – and the trend for those seven is in the wrong direction and in many cases is accelerating. I have also noted that these changes are driven by a set of values that are not aligned with the realities of the finite planet on which we live, and that in turn drive an economic system that is not fit for purpose in the 21st century.
For example, when Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, says that a 3.3 percent global growth forecast is “beautiful but not enough“, this is clearly someone who does not understand what 3.3 per cent growth means. The doubling time is a bit over 21 years, so in a typical Canadian lifespan of about 80 years the global economy would grow more than 13 times.
How does anyone in their right mind, never mind a senior global economics leader, think the planet could sustain such growth when it’s already failing under present conditions.
But several reports from the UN, UN-related organisations and others in the first couple of months of 2026 have begun spelling out how unfit our economic system is. We should not be surprised that this chorus of voices is arising from the United Nations and its agencies. After all, their task is not to protect the economic and other interests of any particular nation, but to stand back and view the big global picture and protect the interests of humanity as a whole, which includes protecting the Earth on which we utterly depend.
First, in January, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) published its seventh Global Environmental Outlook (GEO 7). Climate change, biodiversity loss, land degradation and desertification, and pollution and waste, the report warned, are undermining human wellbeing and “already costing trillions of dollars each year” – yes, trillions!
Climate change alone is estimated to have cost US$2 trillion over the decade from 2014 – 2023, and we know it’s only just beginning! Add to that the US$10 to $44 trillion cost annually attributable to the degradation of ecosystems and “the economic losses, exceeding US$8.1 trillion per year, associated with environmental pollution”. Moreover, the UNEP report states, “the damages from the global environmental crises will become increasingly severe over the coming decades”.
And yet, disturbingly, a group of researchers from the University of Exeter and the Carbon Tracker Initiative noted in early February that “Economic damages from climate change have long been underestimated and inconsistently represented in policy and financial decision-making.” In other words, governments, banks and other financial decision-makers are not properly taking into account the accelerating economic impacts of climate change and the potential for sudden and dramatic changes as we hit tipping points.
Until governments and investors take this into account, the report warns, “financial institutions will continue to chronically under-price climate risks, and pension funds and taxpayers will remain dangerously exposed.” And remember, this is only for climate change, never mind all the other ecological changes underway
The broad conclusion of the UNEP report is that these crises “are primarily caused by unsustainable systems of production and consumption”, so the UNEP recommends investing in the transformation of our societies and economies.
An investment now of less than US$10 trillion per year will begin to yield annual benefits by around 2050, UNEP estimates. These overall benefits are expected to “increase to approximately US$20 trillion per year by 2070, and over US$100 trillion per year by 2100, accounting for more than 25 per cent of projected global GDP in 2100.”
Other recent reports add weight to these arguments. They will be the focus of my next column.
© Trevor Hancock, 2026
Dr. Trevor Hancock is a retired professor and senior scholar at the University of Victoria’s School of Public Health and Social Policy
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